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Chinese exports grew at their fastest rate in more than a year last month, and trade remains one of the few bright spots for the world’s second-largest economy despite rising tensions with Europe and the United States.
Exports rose 8.6 percent in dollar terms in June from a year earlier, data from the National Statistics Office showed on Friday. Accelerating from 7.6% Growth rose 1.5% year-on-year in May, the biggest expansion since March 2023. The figure beat expectations, with a Reuters poll of analysts forecasting growth of 8%.
Imports fell 2.3 percent in June from a year earlier, well below the 2.8 percent increase economists had expected and the 1.8 percent increase in May.
The figures put China’s trade surplus at $99.05 billion, beating the $85 billion forecast and marking a single-month record, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. Exports in the first half of this year were up 3.6% compared with the same period in 2023, while imports were up 2%.
Policymakers in Beijing have become increasingly reliant on exports and manufacturing. Chinese Economy China is struggling with weak domestic demand and a long-term slump in the property sector as Communist Party leaders prepare to hold a closely watched economic policy meeting on Monday.
The United States and European trading partners are responding to a surge in low-cost exports from China by tightening trade restrictions.
The US announced in May that it would significantly increase tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports, including a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. Additional measures announced This will raise tariffs on Chinese-made EVs to nearly 50%.
Analysts say the economic recovery may be uneven, with continued strength in exports and relatively weak imports. Slowdown in JuneIt was up just 0.2% from a year earlier, and manufacturing prices remained in deflationary territory for the 21st consecutive month.
Some experts have suggested that the rise in Chinese exports in recent months could be due to manufacturers bringing forward shipments to avoid higher U.S. tariffs that are expected to take effect in August.
The disruption of Red Sea shipping routes by Yemen’s Houthi militias has also put some Chinese exporters at risk. Ship your items quickly This is to ensure delivery arrives in time for the peak Christmas period.
“Front-loading exports amid heightened trade policy uncertainty may have also supported exports slightly, although the contribution is difficult to quantify,” Goldman analysts said in a note.
In past years, the Communist Party’s elite Central Committee has used the Third Plenum to address pressing economic issues, with some observers calling for stronger measures to stimulate domestic demand and restore business and investor confidence.
But Chinese Premier Li Qiang, speaking at a World Economic Forum event last month, tempered expectations of drastic intervention, saying China’s economy should “recover gradually”.
Export growth was supported by shipments of autos and semiconductors, while imports were dragged down by agricultural products and property-related products such as timber and steel, said Lin Song, chief Greater China economist at ING.
“Import growth has been very uneven so far this year,” he said, adding that U.S. and EU tariffs could cause a slowdown in auto exports towards the end of the year.
But analysts at Capital Economics expect the tariffs, which only apply to a small percentage of Chinese products, will have a limited impact in the near term as exporters reroute shipments. “Overall, we expect exports to remain a tailwind for economic growth in the near term,” they wrote.
