New dawn for space storm alerts could help shield Earth’s tech

Space storms may soon be more accurately predicted than ever before, thanks to a major advance in our understanding of exactly when violent solar outbursts will strike Earth.

Scientists say they are now able to make accurate predictions. speed One Coronal mass ejection (CME) is moving fast enough to impact Earth even before it has fully erupted from the Sun.

A CME is an explosion of gas and magnetic fields that ejects from the sun’s atmosphere into space.

these are Geomagnetic storm Space weather has the potential to wreak havoc on technology in orbit and on Earth’s surface, so experts around the world are working to improve space weather forecasts.

Such advances could make a huge difference to protecting infrastructure vital to our daily lives, say researchers from Aberystwyth University, who presented their findings today at the Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting.2024) in Hull.

The researchers made this discovery after studying specific areas on the Sun called “active regions” – places with strong magnetic fields where CMEs occur. They monitored how these regions changed during the periods before, during and after an eruption.

The key thing they looked at was the “critical altitude” of the active region – the altitude at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and can lead to a CME.

“We can determine this critical altitude by measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with altitude,” said lead author Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University.

“This data can be used in conjunction with geometric models that are used to track the actual speed of a CME in three dimensions instead of two, which is essential for accurate forecasts.”

She added: “Our results reveal a strong relationship between the critical altitude for CME occurrence and the actual CME speed.”

“This insight allows us to predict the speed of the CME, and therefore Arrival time A CME can occur on Earth even before it has fully erupted.”

When these CMEs hit Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms that can produce the beautiful aurora borealis, known as the aurora borealis, in the Northern Hemisphere.

But the storm could also disrupt critical systems we rely on every day, including satellites. Power gridand Communication NetworkThat’s why scientists around the world are working hard to improve their ability to more accurately predict when a CME will hit Earth.

To do this, we need to know more precisely how fast a CME moves immediately after it erupts from the Sun, and give more advanced warning of when it will reach Earth.

Accurate speed predictions allow for more precise estimates of when a CME will reach Earth, providing crucial advance warning.

“Understanding and using critical altitudes in forecasting will improve our ability to warn of approaching CMEs and help protect technology essential to modern life,” Gandhi said.

“Our research not only improves our understanding of the Sun’s explosive behavior, but also greatly improves our space weather forecasting capabilities.

“This means better preparation and protection for the technology systems we rely on every day.”