Imagine if scientists gave you even more advance warning before your chance to see the super-powerful aurora.
Researchers at Aberystwyth University in Wales say they’ve found a way to do just that, by predicting speeds more accurately. Coronal mass ejection (CME) Before these powerful storms erupt from the Earth’s surface Sun.
“Our study not only improves our understanding of the Sun’s explosive behavior, but also greatly improves our predictive capabilities. Space Weather “This phenomenon is a solar flurry of events around the sun,” said Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University and lead study author. press release “This means better preparation and protection for the technological systems we rely on every day,” the Royal Astronomical Society said in a statement.
CMEs are powerful eruptions that send giant clouds of solar plasma hurtling through space at speeds of millions of miles per hour, and they can gain momentum as they hurtle toward Earth. Aurora Not only do they cause phenomena like the aurora borealis and the southern lights, but they also disrupt satellites, power grids and communications systems.
Gandhi and her team SunspotsActive regions on the Sun’s surface act as launch pads for CMEs and solar flares, and they focused on a variable called the “critical altitude,” the altitude at which a sunspot’s magnetic field becomes unstable and can lead to the onset of a CME.
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“We can determine this critical altitude by measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with altitude. This data can be used along with a geometric model, which is used to track the true speed of a CME in three dimensions rather than the two that are essential for accurate predictions,” Gandhi said. “The results of our study reveal that there is a strong relationship between the critical altitude at CME onset and the true speed of the CME. This insight allows us to predict the speed of a CME and, consequently, its time of arrival at Earth.” EarthEven before the CME has fully erupted.”
A better understanding of how fast a CME travels will allow scientists to make more accurate predictions and increase the lead time it takes for the plasma cloud to reach Earth. Quite difficultThis is especially important when a sunspot emits multiple CMEs in quick succession, as happened in May of this year.
“Understanding and using critical altitudes in forecasting will improve our ability to warn of approaching CMEs and help protect technology essential to modern life,” Gandhi said.
The research team published the results of their research. Royal Astronomical Society Organization National Astronomical Congress Friday (July 19th).
