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There’s a sense at BBC HQ that friends, colleagues and family are all having a worse year than usual: just when you think you’ve recovered from one cold, you catch another, infection after infection.
“The reality is there is a lack of data and a lot of anecdotes,” said Professor Jonathan Ball, from the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine.
So what’s going on?
It’s the summer of Corona
We are currently in the middle of the summer coronavirus outbreak, so if you have a cough or fever, it’s likely due to the virus.
Although we haven’t collected the same detailed data as we did during the peak of the pandemic, the wave Construction begins around May.
“We know a lot of people who have had coronavirus recently,” says Prof Peter Openshaw, from Imperial College London.
About 3,000 people currently hospitalized have tested positive for COVID-19, nearly double the number in early April. While hospitalizations are not necessarily due to infection, it’s one way to gauge whether a new wave of infections is coming.
“We’re seeing a very significant increase but COVID-19 is not yet a winter virus so we can be quite confident about that,” Prof Openshaw said.
This appears to have been caused by the FLiRT variant of the virus, and pubs packed with football fans may have also helped spread the virus.
This virus can still cause unpleasant infections, and although we are no longer taking emergency measures to suppress its transmission, we are vaccinating the most vulnerable people twice a year, given the threat this virus poses.
A season of confusion
Respiratory infections such as coughs, colds and flu are likely to be most prevalent during the winter months.
Dropping temperatures, more time spent indoors and keeping windows closed all favor the spread of respiratory viruses during this time of year.
One argument is that pandemic restrictions have disrupted normal patterns (flu all but disappeared during the winter lockdown) and things have not yet returned to full normal.
“The seasonality seems to have been disrupted, particularly with cold viruses, so they’re circulating at odd times and I don’t think we’re over it at the moment. We’ve got a bit of catching up to do,” Prof Ball said.
The idea is that even if you have the exact same number of infections in a year, you may feel as if you are sick all the time.
“This can lead to people feeling fatigued for longer periods of time and thinking, ‘I don’t feel as well as I used to,'” says Prof Ball.
Image source, Getty Images
Whooping cough
Also, pertussis (also called whooping cough) is predicted to make a comeback in 2024.
The bacterial infection occurs in outbreaks every three to five years, with the most recent outbreak occurring in 2016.
Therefore, the infection would probably have spread during the peak of the pandemic.
UK Health Security Agency Warning“The impact of the pandemic also means a weakening of the population’s immunity.”
Symptoms are similar to a cold, with a runny nose and sore throat that can develop into coughing fits that can last for long periods of time, hence the nickname “100 days.”
Anyone can get whooping cough, but it’s generally a mild illness in adults. The problem is that it can spread to infants, who are highly susceptible. Nine people have died from the disease this year.
That’s why newborn vaccinations and the pertussis vaccine during pregnancy (which gives your baby protective antibodies while still in the womb) are so important…
Vaccination rates are declining
Low vaccination rates mean more people will get preventable diseases.
Taking whooping cough as an example, 72.6% of pregnant women chose to get vaccinated in March 2017. By March 2024, that figure was 58.9%.
However, the decline in vaccination rates is consistent with a general trend across childhood vaccines. The UK has achieved its target of 95% vaccination coverage for measles, mumps and rubella. First time in 2017now it’s down to 92.5%.
“It increases the number of people who are susceptible and that helps these infections spread, which is why we are hearing warnings about a measles outbreak,” said Prof Sheena Cruickshank, from the University of Manchester.
There is a measles outbreak in Birmingham and London. The initial symptoms are similar to a cold, with fever, runny nose and cough, followed by a rash.
This allows experts to “Emergency Reversal” As vaccination numbers are declining, Tipping point The rate at which children die or become seriously ill from preventable diseases.
More vulnerable to infection
Another idea is that even if the circulating pathogens didn’t change, our overall health has deteriorated due to austerity, the pandemic and the cost of living crisis, making us more susceptible to pathogens.
Prof Cruickshank said stress causes the immune system to “dampen down”, while a sedentary lifestyle and poor diet cause “metabolic inflammation”.
“This is where our immune system becomes unbalanced and less able to deal with threats effectively,” she says.
“A lot of us are malnourished and we’re not getting the key nutrients that are really important for our immune systems.”
So an infection that our body easily cleared in the past may now cause more intense symptoms.
Hay Fever
If you’re feeling sick with a runny nose, itchy throat and bouts of sneezing, it’s possible that your immune system is reacting to pollen rather than an infection.
“If you’re unlucky enough to have hay fever like me, it doesn’t really make you feel any better,” she says.
Japan Meteorological Agency Climate change could affect hay fever by increasing pollen season and pollen intensity — essentially making hay fever worse and lasting longer, the researchers say.
This is a long-term trend, but Prof Cruickshank said it could be why people were “feeling a bit worse” this summer.
Summer colds are not uncommon
The term “summer cold” was not invented in 2024.
Prof Ball said that in addition to the other factors mentioned above, the pandemic could be creating a “heightened” reaction, making people more nervous about even coughs and colds.
In 2019, no one asked themselves “Is that coronavirus?” when a coworker had a bad cough, or “Do I need to buy a coronavirus test kit?” when feeling down before a holiday flight or visiting an elderly relative.
“People, maybe before COVID, just carried on with life, and now they’re a little more sensitive to things like a runny nose,” Prof Ball said.
The coronavirus is still the coronavirus, but maybe we don’t need to worry so much about a good old-fashioned summer runny nose.
