New Delhi, India – Whenever Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with male world leaders, he almost always hugs them. Hugs last week The remarks, made during a meeting in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin, drew strong backlash from both Washington and Kiev.
In a series of statements over several days, U.S. officials PM Modi’s visit to RussiaThis is the first time since Putin launched an all-out war against Ukraine in February 2022.
The US national security adviser has warned that a strong relationship with Russia is a “bad gamble” for India. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said the US is concerned about India’s ties with Russia, and US ambassador to India Eric Garcetti warned New Delhi not to take its friendship with the US “for granted.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was more direct. Deadly missile attack The press conference took place at Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital, a day before PM Modi’s visit to Moscow. “It is a great disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy embracing one of the world’s most brutal criminals in Moscow on a day like this,” the PM wrote on X.
A brutal Russian missile attack in Ukraine today left 37 people dead, 3 of whom were children, and 170 injured, including 13 children.
A Russian missile hit Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital, targeting young cancer patients. Many… pic.twitter.com/V1k7PEz2rJ
— Volodymyr Zelensky (@ZelenskyyUa) July 8, 2024
So, did India miscalculate the geopolitical reaction to Modi’s visit? Did his visit to Moscow and his public displays of goodwill towards Putin damage India-US relations? And why is ties with Russia so important to India, which has invested years in its relationship with the US?
Analysts say the answer lies in a combination of history, New Delhi’s confidence in its ability to juggle multiple complex relationships and a gamble that former U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to power might soften America’s hardline stance toward Russia.
“My friend Donald Trump”
On Saturday, a sniper on the roof of a Trump rally in Pennsylvania shot the former president, killing one and wounding two others. A barrage of reactions Applications came in from all over the world.
In one post, Prime Minister Modi condemned the attack and described Trump as “my friend.” The two leaders held joint public events in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad a few years ago, and a senior Indian government official told me the Modi administration is increasingly confident that Trump may return to power in November.
Former President Trump is leading incumbent Joe Biden in opinion polls in several battleground states and the image of him standing up with his fist raised and blood running down his face after being shot is expected to cement Trump’s lead over Biden.
“The US presidential election seems a foregone conclusion for Donald Trump and Prime Minister Modi will be pleased,” the Indian official said.
One way that a Trump victory could help India, analysts say, is by easing pressure on New Delhi to turn its back on Moscow.
“A second Trump administration would almost certainly be less concerned about the perception of Russia’s relationship with India,” said Christopher Clary, an assistant professor of political science at the University at Albany and an adjunct scholar in the Washington-based Stimson Center’s South Asia Program.
During his first term as president, Trump focused America’s strategic attention on the rivalry between Washington and Beijing, not Moscow, a worldview that coincides with that of India, which also sees Beijing as its biggest threat.
A perfect balance
Indeed, India and Russia have a long history of ties: India had close ties with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, while Russia has maintained ties with India.
Historically, it Largest arms supplier It supplies defense equipment to India, ranging from MiG and Sukhoi fighter jets to, more recently, the S-400 missile defense system.
Since Russia’s war in Ukraine began, India has also significantly increased its purchases of Russian oil. Russia is now India’s largest oil supplier, and imports have boosted total trade between India and Russia from around $10 billion a year until recently to $63 billion.
India has faced criticism in the West over its oil purchases, which it says help fund Russia’s war efforts – a charge it denies and says it is in fact helping stabilize global oil prices by buying Russian oil that the West no longer wants.
At the same time, India has in recent years focused on strengthening ties with the West, particularly the United States, which it sees as essential U.S. support to thwart the threat posed by a rising China. India buys most of its new weapons systems from U.S. and European manufacturers, reducing its defense reliance on Russia.
India has said it was simply exercising its strategic autonomy, but US Ambassador Garcetti, speaking in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata last week, countered that “there is no such thing as strategic autonomy in a conflict,” referring to the war in Ukraine.
Modi’s visit to Russia also came a day before Zelenskyy arrived in Washington to attend the NATO summit. Seema Sirohi, a Washington-based journalist and analyst, said Modi’s visit to Russia had created a bad image from the U.S. perspective, where Zelenskyy is treated as a hero.
Has India crossed the “red line”?
The Russia visit coincided with other sources of friction between India and the United States. U.S. prosecutors allege that Indian government officials tried to plot the assassination of Sikh separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American with dual Canadian citizenship. In June, the Czech Republic extradited to the United States an Indian man who U.S. prosecutors say was trying to hire hit men for the assassination.
Speaking in Kolkata, Garcetti cited U.S. concerns about India’s civil rights situation, which many human rights groups have criticized Modi’s government. Targeting criticismThe United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has listed India as a “country of particular concern” for the past five years, alleging that the Indian government has “engaged in and tolerated systematic, sustained and egregious violations of religious freedom.”
Still, analysts say India and Modi have enough cards in their pockets to weather minor hiccups in ties.
Despite Modi’s unpopular visit to Russia, U.S. insiders were “not really surprised” by the visit, Clary said. [India-US] “The relationship between our two countries is healthy and Prime Minister Modi’s visit will not undermine that foundation,” he said.
Days before flying to Moscow, PM Modi skipped the annual summit. Shanghai Cooperation OrganizationChina and Russia will take the lead.
An Indian government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said New Delhi also plans to host a summit of the Quad later this year. China sees the Quad, a group of Asia-Pacific democracies that includes Australia, India, Japan and the United States, as a challenge to its own rise.
A BRICS summit will also be held in Kazan, Russia, later this year. Until last year, the BRICS group consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but now also includes Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopia.
Whether Modi visits Russia for the second time in three months or skips the talks will indicate the extent to which India is willing to test ties with the United States, government officials said.
Sirohi said that for now, India and the US realise they need each other and cannot risk undermining their partnership.
“India and Washington will understand their obligations to each other,” she said, “and the broader U.S.-India relationship is too important to be thrown off course by one setback.”
Or just a hug.
