Assets linked to US Republican candidate Donald Trump’s potential victory in the Nov. 4 election are once again in turmoil following Saturday’s assassination attempt on the former president.
The top cryptocurrency by market cap has risen above the crucial 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a widely used metric for gauging long-term trends and a trendline that marks a downtrend from the early-June highs, a positive sign for momentum traders, according to CoinDesk data.The Trump-themed Polifi token, which symbolizes the intersection of politics and finance, has also surged.
Trump has reversed course in recent months, endorsing cryptocurrencies in an effort to outmaneuver rival Joe Biden and garner support from the so-called single-issue crypto community, which is seeking a friendlier regulatory environment for the industry. That makes Bitcoin and the broader crypto market a bet on Trump’s victory. The former president has committed to speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27.
“The biggest news story of the weekend was the assassination attempt on President Trump. Absolutely insane. This makes a Trump presidency more likely. Trump being a pro-crypto president should spur crypto buy orders,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at AmberData, said in an email.
Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan (CNY) has fallen against the US dollar as a Trump victory could mean higher trade tariffs. Earlier this year, Trump proposed stripping China of its “most favored nation” status in trade with the US and imposing tariffs of over 60% on Chinese products. The Mexican peso (MXN) has also fallen due to Trump’s cold relationship with Latin American countries under his presidency.
Ten-year Treasury futures prices have fallen, signaling higher yields as a return to the White House would mean more spending, lower taxes and a larger budget deficit. Several investment banks are betting on a Trump victory. It gets steeper The current inverted yield curve could reverse in the coming months. Historically, a sharp rise in yields has led to widespread risk aversion in financial markets.
Futures tracking the S&P 500 were up 0.18% at the time of writing, suggesting a positive start to Monday despite a selloff in Asian stocks following weak Chinese economic growth. The dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against major fiat currencies, traded up 0.10% to 104.19, according to TradingView.
