On 18 July, the European Parliament Elected German conservative Ursula von der Leyen has been sworn in for a second five-year term as European Commission president.
Running as the only candidate, she managed to cobble together a heterogeneous temporary coalition government made up of the center-right Christian Democrats, the center-left Socialists, the Liberals and the Greens. Despite strong gains for the right-wing national conservatives in June’s European elections, mainly at the expense of the Liberals and Greens, a majority in parliament opted to keep von der Leyen in office.
In foreign policy, this meant strengthening the “center” (neo-conservative and liberal) consensus on the Ukraine war and isolating war skeptics on the right and the far-left. The first session of the newly elected parliament has drawn clear lines, sealing a clear division for the next five years.
First, the majority Rejected France’s National Rally and the far-right League of European Patriots, led by Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, have requested that a debate be placed on the plenary session agenda about last weekend’s assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is seeking reinstatement as the Republican candidate in November’s election.
PatriotsThe main national conservative group in parliament and the third largest overall after von der Leyen’s centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialist Party. When this request was predictably rejected by the centre parties, (119 votes in favor, 337 votes against) Patriots accused them of violating democratic norms and creating the conditions for politically motivated violence against opponents.
To highlight the isolation of patriots, the main centre-right grouping, the European People’s Party, countered with a resolution on Ukraine, joined by other centre-right parties, including the Socialists, Liberals and Greens, and the pro-Ukrainian right wing of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, the fourth largest in parliament. The five political groups presented their traditionally tough resolutions. Joint TextIn particular, it demanded the removal of all restrictions on the use of Western weapons systems provided to Ukraine against military targets on Russian territory.
The MEPs also “reiterated their belief that Ukraine is on an irreversible path to NATO,” despite the fact that the European Parliament has no say in NATO and that many EU member states (Austria, Ireland, Malta and Cyprus) are not members of NATO and have not indicated their intention to join to date.
Reflecting the turmoil in Brussels over Orban’s “peace mission” that took him to Kiev, Moscow, Beijing, Washington and Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in recent weeks, the resolution: Blame him The move comes after it was criticised for “violating a common EU position” and failing to coordinate with other member states and EU institutions.
The lawmakers called for a “ripple effect on Hungary”. This has already started. Boycott attempt Hungary holds the EU presidency but has shown no interest in the substance of Orbán’s policies. comment He made this clear in a letter to EU Council President Charles Michel.
Given the extent to which Orbán has chosen to emphasize what must be a highly delicate and sensitive diplomatic effort to be meaningful, one may legitimately question its effectiveness, but the problem is that he is the only EU leader who enjoys an open channel of communication with the Kremlin, while mainstream, “respectable” European leaders are often maximizing their rhetoric about Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat without defining those terms, much less laying out a credible path to achieving it.
The European patriots Alternative Exercises Regarding Ukraine, a resolution was adopted that differed significantly from the majority’s, condemning Russian aggression and expressing support for Ukraine’s independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders (including Donbas and Crimea), while also recalling that member states “remain sovereign with regard to decisions regarding the provision of financial, military and diplomatic assistance to third countries.”
They also stressed their conviction that there is no military solution to the conflict and that peace is the only viable and sustainable solution. They therefore called on the parties to “open diplomatic channels with a view to concluding a lasting peace agreement.”
The two motions revealed irreconcilable differences in the two sides’ approaches to the war in Ukraine, so negotiations to find a middle ground proved neither possible nor desirable – they were aimed at scoring political points. I tried to depict Patriots are considered pawns of Russian President Putin, and patriots Accused In large part, it is about escalating conflict in pursuit of unattainable goals and weakening the European economy in the process.
As expected, the bill was passed by an overwhelming majority, with 495 votes in favor and 137 against. What’s fixed All proposals put forward by left-wing groups aimed at paving the way for a diplomatic solution to the hostilities were rejected. This tells us that while it may have been politically unacceptable for the moderates to vote for the Patriots’ proposals, no such informal restrictions exist for the far-left. Thus, rejecting diplomacy seems to be a matter of choice, not just political expediency.
The majority of “centers” are left-wing (relatively moderate) Fixes It lamented the apparent double standards the EU is applying to Russia’s violations of international law in Ukraine and Israel’s violations of international law in Gaza.
The majority leaders Blessed himself Not all lawmakers seem convinced about sending another “strong message” to Orbán. Michael von Schulenberg, a member of the German left-wing party Sahra Fagenknecht and a veteran UN diplomat, lamented that the majority’s draft is based on “the continuation and intensification of the war until military victory over Russia,” which is now completely unrealistic. In his view, rejecting attempts to find a peaceful solution would continue to inflict “immeasurable suffering on the Ukrainian people.”
Recent investigation As a report from the European Council on Foreign Relations shows, these views are fairly widespread among Europeans, including among mainstream voters, but as the first session of the new European Parliament showed, they are destined to remain isolated in the parliament that is supposed to represent them.
Almost the same coalition government that voted for the Ukraine resolution (minus the ECR majority and some centre-right defectors such as the Gaullists in France) elected Russia hardliner von der Leyen to a second term, adding to this the nomination of former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. Proposed It completes the alliance of EU institutions that supports Russia’s division as the highest representative of the EU’s foreign policy and supports continuity on the Ukrainian issue.
But this dynamic could change if a Trump-Vance administration were to usher in the frightening (or hopeful, depending on how you look at it) US withdrawal from Europe, which would force Europe to either fight Russia in Ukraine with significantly less US support or seriously consider ways to negotiate an end to the war.
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