The United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, and some EU member states have been fiercely opposed to the pipeline since it was first announced in 2015, warning that the project will increase Moscow’s influence in Europe.
According to experts, it is a victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin in itself.
Kristine Berzina, a senior researcher at the German Marshall Fund, a nonpartisan research center, said Moscow benefited from dramas around the pipeline. “Everything in the NordStream2 pipeline was a victory for Russia,” she told CNN.
For years, both Russia and Germany have argued that the pipeline is purely a business and has nothing to do with politics.
But in Central and Eastern Europe, where gas supply from Russia plays an integral role in power generation and home heating, there are few more political topics than energy security. Natural gas prices are already approaching record highs, and many fear that further tensions could cause more pain to European consumers.
As Russia’s largest gas customer, Germany was reluctant to use pipelines to put pressure on Moscow. In less than two weeks, German Defense Minister Christine Brecht warned against dragging Nord Stream 2 into the conflict.
However, as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine increased, the Germans quietly withdrew their claim. Under pressure from the United States, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock confirmed last week that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could be included in a package of sanctions against Russia over its involvement in Ukraine.
“Putin wants to see Nord Stream 2. If it is somehow killed before the potential invasion, he has one less reason not to invade Ukraine,” said US Senate Diplomatic Chairman. Said Bob Menendez.
Ukraine and other Eastern European countries have warned that a new pipeline could make the region more vulnerable to Russia’s whims.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the debate over energy prices has plagued relations between Russia and Ukraine. Russia has repeatedly reduced its gas supply to Ukraine. Russia now needs Ukraine. Because the large amount of gas that Russia sells to Europe still flows through the territory of Ukraine to other parts of the continent.
By bypassing Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 makes it easier for Russia to isolate Ukraine.
Pipelines are of particular value to Russia, which relies on oil and gas exports for more than 40% of its government revenues. If operational, Russia will supply 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually directly from Russia to Europe. Gazprom, the Russian state-owned company that owns the pipeline, said the average export price in 2021 would be $ 280 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas, and the new pipeline could be worth more than $ 15 billion annually. ..
Gazprom has already invested about $ 11 billion in the project.
“The West needs all forms of leverage that can discourage Russia from invading Ukraine,” said Belgina, saying that not sanctioning the pipeline means that it can be used as leverage in the future. Then he added. “Russia’s ambitions today are so great that in the early 90’s there was a clear request from the West to return the troops to their original location and close the door to NATO expansion. These are in line with Western values. The West can’t really give Russia what Russia wants because it doesn’t. “
Andrey Korznov, Secretary of the Russian Council for International Affairs, said Moscow sees the Nord Stream project as a test of EU strategic autonomy from the United States.
“If the NordStream2 project could be ruined, it would confirm the recognition that Europe is not a trusted partner and cannot cooperate with the European Union. They can’t agree on anything, so they want to get something done. If so, you should go to Washington. “
Russia has repeatedly warned the West not to drag Nord Stream 2 into the political crisis. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergeĭ Viklov said attempts to politicize the Nord Stream 2 issue were “opposite.”
However, while the pipeline is of great value to Putin, it is doubtful that it can play a decisive role in persuading him to reduce Ukrainian cross-border plans.
“If it fails, it will be a big loss to Gazprom and the Russian economy, but instead of saying that the Russians are okay, we can proceed with NATO expansion, but as long as Nord Stream 2 is running, that’s a problem. No. “Korznov said.
“What’s the problem [Putin’s] What is your ultimate goal? He has money, Russia has saved foreign exchange reserves, it can afford to lose money now … economic relations, pipeline, the cost he is willing to pay? “Berzina added.
CNN’s Natasha Bertrand contributed to this report.
