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Healthcare analytics firm Airfinity this week cut its U.S. market forecast for RSV vaccines for seniors by as much as 64% after a CDC expert panel last month narrowed its recommendations for RSV vaccinations.
Airfinity The CDC revised its forecast after an advisory committee in June recommended that people aged 75 and older get one RSV vaccination in their lifetime. The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) also declined to recommend RSV vaccination for adults aged 60-74 who have not yet reached the age limit. The risk of disease increases.
Following the update, London-based Airfinity said it had lowered its forecast for the U.S. RSV vaccine market by 64% to $1.7 billion annually from $4.7 billion to reflect the revised guidance, and that its estimate of the population eligible for vaccination fell 44% to 46 million.
The US RSV vaccine market consists of three companies. In May, the FDA approved a messenger RNA-based RSV vaccine called mRESVIA from Moderna.Nasdaq:Guinea pig RNA) is carried out to prevent the risk of lower respiratory tract disease caused by the disease in people aged 60 and over.
Last year, GSK (New York Stock Exchange:GSK) and Pfizer (New York Stock Exchange:Personal consumption taxThe United States became the first country to approve an RSV vaccine when the FDA approved the conventionally developed vaccine, Alexi. Abrysvo for the same indications.
Additionally, ACIP delayed an expected recommendation to include high-risk people ages 50 to 59, to whom the FDA expanded the indication for Alexi in June.
The delay in the decision could affect GSK’s revenue by around $300 million, but Airfinity said the impact could be even greater because the British company had used priority review vouchers worth between $20 million and $100 million to accelerate label expansion.
“Unless new data supports the benefit of the booster shot, the ACIP recommendation will likely hinder revenue growth in the U.S. market,” said Isabella Huettner, RSV leader at Airfinity, adding that the three marker payers will benefit from the global rollout.
Britain, Canada and major EU countries are set to launch the first RSV vaccination programs this winter, but there appears to be a trend toward recommending a single lifetime dose for people over 75. “In the UK,” Huettner added.
