After an influx of U.S. arms and funds helped Ukraine blunt a new push into the northeastern Kharkiv region in May, thwarting a major breakthrough and dashing Moscow’s hopes of encircling Ukraine’s second-largest city, Russian commanders have now turned their attention back to the Donetsk region, arguably Russian President Vladimir Putin’s biggest territorial target.
The renewed push into the Kharkiv region has produced limited success but has also diverted Ukrainian resources. Oleksandr, 30, a battalion commander with the 47th Brigade fighting near Ocheletyn, said Ukrainian forces are struggling and Putin’s goals seem increasingly within Russian reach.
“The strategy is clever – concentrate enemy forces in one direction, then distract them in another,” said Oleksandr, who goes by the call sign “Genius” and, as is customary in the Ukrainian military, is referred to only by his first name.
“Their first goal is to destroy us,” he said. “The second is to put pressure on us, to gain more leverage in the peace talks and get more from us. They are almost in control of the Donetsk region.”
Putin’s forces are currently on the offensive along three key points: Hasif Yar, just west of the city of Bakhmut, which Russia captured in the spring of 2023, the small industrial town of Toletsk, and the countryside west of Ocheretyn, a strategically high-ground village that Russian forces seized in May after advancing northwest from Avdiivka, which they captured in February.
While heavy fighting continues elsewhere, including at Kupyansk in the northeast and at several points along the southern front, the Donetsk offensive represents a marked shift in tactics by Russian commanders who appear to have learned from past mistakes and are now making steady gains for the Kremlin and threatening the Ukrainian city of Kostyantnyivka, which lies along a strategic highway.
This week, the Washington-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, reported that Ukraine had thwarted a major mechanized attack by Russian forces near Kostyantynivka, inflicting heavy losses on Russian equipment. On Friday, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that the “most tense situation” remained near Pokrovsk.
“This new offensive in the Donetsk region is very interesting because it signals a broader shift in operational planning,” said ISW analyst Carolina Hurd. “Russia has struggled to craft a strategy in recent years, with tactical missteps preventing any meaningful progress thus far.”
“Previously, they simply committed troops to long, casualty-inducing operations,” she continued. “Russian commanders are now learning how to conduct simultaneous, mutually reinforcing offensive operations to keep Ukraine’s resources under constant pressure.”
Ukraine’s military strength is weakened and it is feeling the pressure. The heatwaves have made the situation worse, with temperatures soaring to more than 104 degrees Fahrenheit in some areas along the front earlier this month.
Ukrainian commanders and soldiers interviewed by The Post cited exhaustion and dwindling resources, including severe troop shortages. A new mobilization law adopted by the Ukrainian parliament has yet to provide badly needed reinforcements because new recruits are still being trained and some eligible men have fled the country or stayed in hiding to avoid conscription.
The 56-year-old sergeant, known by the call sign “Bert,” described the situation as “critical” and said there was “serious confusion” on the front line. He blamed poor decisions by the leadership, including in some cases mixing up Ukrainian and Russian forces’ positions.
Mikhail, 46, a mortar unit commander fighting in Krasnogorivka and known by the call sign “Brain”, said reconnaissance had shown that Russia had recently “raised the bar” around Ocheretyne, committing significant resources, including adding more soldiers and tanks.
Last week, Russian forces advanced four miles west of Ocheretyn, forcing a Ukrainian infantry brigade that had been holding a defensive line at the village of Proles to withdraw.
Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade was forced into a “disorganized retreat” due to a shortage of soldiers.
Some of the heaviest fighting this summer has taken place around the industrial city of Tretsk, where Russia has made major tactical advances.
Commanders and military analysts said the battle, and a Russian offensive on the nearby city of New York, was aimed at pressuring Ukraine’s battered infantry forces in a bid to break through to Kostyantnyivka.
Ukrainian soldiers said the Russian forces near Tretsk appeared to be employing the same tactic they used to capture Avdiivka in February after months of fierce fighting, encircling Ukrainian forces on three sides while wearing them down with relentless air bombings.
Now, in addition to constant bombardment and drone attacks, extreme heat is taking a toll on soldiers living in trenches across Ukraine’s forests and vast plains, and clear blue skies mean they are even more exposed to surveillance and attack drones.
Parts of the Russian army are also advancing west and north through the city of Krahove. If the Russians take Tretsk, Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, the entire Donetsk region will be at risk.
Several Ukrainian commanders cited the accelerating drone warfare as one of the main challenges on the battlefield, saying Russia has significantly increased its electronic jamming capabilities to negate Ukraine’s previous advantage with first-person view (FPV) drones.
“What has changed a lot is their drone tactics and use of electronic warfare. Before, we had the advantage and were more efficient, but now that’s not the case,” Mikhail said.
Serhiy, 29, a New York-based drone unit commander who goes by the call sign “Shelby,” said Ukraine is also redesigning drones to clear mines and carry out new types of attacks. For example, engineers have fitted anti-tank mines to the powerful Kazan drone.
Many vehicles in Donbas now have antennas that indicate they are equipped with drone-jamming devices. Soldiers also use small black boxes called “Sugar,” radars that identify and warn of circling drones. Sugars did not exist in Ukraine a year ago, but are now commonplace.
Ukrainian soldiers also noted an increased use of aerial bombs around Khasiv Yar and New York, particularly Soviet-era glide bombs, which they said were causing heavy damage and lowering morale, some of which could weigh up to 6,600 pounds and destroy infantry positions and buildings with devastating effect.
Eugene, a 41-year-old drone pilot in New York, said while Russian commanders still rely on “human bomb” tactics – sending waves of recently conscripted, ill-prepared soldiers against targets – they are also employing new “scorched earth” tactics that involve the devastation of entire towns.
“The Russians are attacking New York with aerial bombs and artillery, completely destroying one quarter of the city in order to allow their troops in,” drone commander Serhiy said.
“It’s really tough,” Pasha, 34, a drone commander fighting with the 105th Brigade, said of the situation in New York.
“They are using Niuyok to surround Tretsk. I think there is a good chance they can do it now. It’s just a matter of resources and timing,” Pasha said. The glide bombs are so powerful they can disable an entire infantry unit on impact, he said.
Hurd, of the Institute for the Study of War, said Russia is unlikely to succeed despite its recent achievements.
“Russia has not demonstrated the ability to effectively execute a mechanized advance and seize large swaths of territory, making it unlikely it can take the entire Donbas by force,” she said. Still, with Ukrainian morale low and future Western support in doubt, she said, a slow war of attrition would be more advantageous for Moscow.
Siobhan O’Grady in Kyiv contributed to this report.
