The aurora borealis passes over a horse stable in Mercer, Maine, on May 10, 2024. … [+]
of Global geomagnetic storm on May 10The aurora borealis, which brought spectacular displays of green, red, purple and blue light as far south as Arizona and Florida, will soon be more accurately predicted.
Violent solar outbursts (called coronal mass ejections) can send chunks of charged particles hurtling towards the Earth. Extreme geomagnetic stormsThis involves strong electric currents that can damage power lines, oil and gas pipelines, railways, and undersea cables. Charged particles accelerate along the Earth’s magnetic field and interact with particles in the atmosphere, also producing the Aurora Borealis (called the Northern Lights in the Northern Hemisphere).
But predicting when a geomagnetic storm will start, and therefore when the aurora will appear, has until now been impossible for solar physicists and space weather forecasters.
Accurate predictions
Aberystwyth University researchers today Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting in HullResearch suggests it is now possible to predict the exact speed at which a CME will travel, and therefore precisely when a geomagnetic storm will begin.
May’s landmark G5 geomagnetic storm, the strongest since 2003, was caused by multiple CMEs moving at different speeds catching up with each other and crashing into Earth, but space weather forecasters were unable to accurately predict it in advance.
In June 2015, a coronal mass ejection was observed erupting from the Sun.
Solar maximum
If a CME originates on the Earth-side of the Sun and is aimed towards Earth, it can take several days to reach us. CMEs originate from sunspots on the Sun’s surface, usually after a solar flare, travel at the speed of light and can cause geomagnetic disturbances after just eight minutes.
After being quiet for the past few weeks, the Sun has been active over the past year or so, with numerous solar flares and CMEs. This is because the Sun is approaching or has already reached a “solar maximum,” a peak period of solar activity over an 11-year cycle when the Sun’s magnetic activity spikes.
Active Area
The study focused on “active regions” in sunspots, which have strong magnetic fields and can generate CMEs. The researchers monitored how these regions changed before, during and after sunspot eruptions to determine the altitude at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and a CME can occur. They found a strong relationship between the critical altitude at which a CME occurs and the speed at which it moves away from the Sun, allowing them to predict the arrival of a CME at Earth even before it has fully erupted from the Sun.
“We can determine this critical altitude by measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with altitude,” says lead researcher Harshita Gandhi, a solar physicist at Aberystwyth University. By feeding the data into a 3D geometric model, we can track the actual speed of the CME and make accurate predictions. “This insight allows us to predict the speed of the CME, and therefore its arrival time at Earth, even before it has fully erupted,” Gandhi says.
On May 10, 2024, a geomagnetic storm lit up the night sky over the Bonneville Salt Flats. … [+]
Prepare for the Aurora
Solar physicists More powerful geomagnetic storms predicted Over the next few months, the auroras are a constant occurrence, usually occurring around the Arctic and Antarctic Circles at latitudes 65 degrees north and south. However, when geomagnetic storms increase and intensify, the auroras tend to be seen closer to the equator.
Frequently check apps like these: My Aurora Forecasts and Alerts, Aurora Watch UK or online Aurora – 30 Minute Forecast – Space Weather Prediction Center However, to see the Northern Lights at their best, you need a fair amount of darkness and clear skies, so if you’re in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s wise to be prepared to travel late at night in an area with as little light pollution as possible. Dark Sky Location Search Locate the nearest Dark Sky Park, or Light Pollution Map.
While it is possible to see some very colorful auroras, especially if you are far from light pollution, you should expect to see only “photographic auroras” where the clear colors can only be captured on smartphones or manual cameras.
Please accept my book Stargazing in 2024, Stargazing Program for Beginnersand When is the next solar eclipse?
May the clear skies and big eyes be with you.
