Everyone wants a blockbuster. But spectacular, jaw-dropping blockbusters are becoming increasingly rare. By now, fans are well aware of the catchphrase team executives use to excuse their refusal to trade their Precious Prospects™ for anything big:
The club wants to protect its “period of dominance”, “not to mortgage its future”, and “build a sustainable competitor”.
For these reasons and more (and don’t forget “we want to keep our jobs”), many team executives are risk-averse, almost by default.
San Diego Padres GM AJ Preller is an exception, and his Northwestern spirit animal is no exception. Seattle Mariners “Most of the other buyers will be very cautious, and some sellers will understandably want to keep their top-tier players rather than just replace them every year,” said Jerry Dipoto, president of baseball operations.
Here are the decisions the team faces regarding six trade candidate players and our recommendation on whether they should stay or go.
In a trade market short on aces, the 27-year-old Skubal is a logical target for a team in a hurry to bolster its rotation. Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers It fits that description. Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros Padres. Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta BravesI am also looking for.
The Tigers are simply treading carefully as they approach Skubal’s request. But after seven straight losing seasons, they’re finally feeling energized. They’ve won 11 of their last 14 games. Their young hitters, including second baseman, are doing well. Colt Keith Designated hitter Justin Henry Malloy Are they really going to trade a team-controlled pitcher who is maturing and a front-runner for the Cy Young Award for two more seasons at a below-market salary?
The only reason to do that is the obvious one: fear that Skubal will get hurt. It’s a legitimate concern with seemingly every pitcher on the planet being injured, and Skubal’s health history isn’t exactly perfect. He had Tommy John surgery in 2017 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022 that sidelined him for nearly a year. So the idea of trading him for a top position prospect isn’t far-fetched.
still.
Tigers for 6 years Jackson Holiday They can get him for more than double the amount Skubal paid. They’re not a doomsday, low-revenue team, not even when they boasted a top-five payroll from 2012 to 2017 under the late head coach Mike Ilitch. And after starting the season ranked 25th in payroll, they should be ready to spend again soon.
Skubal’s agent is Scott Boras, so a contract extension is unlikely. But that doesn’t matter. The Tigers play in an improving but still relatively weak AL Central division. With Skubal, they could get back to the postseason before he hits free agency. Without him, they’ll remain on the same hamster wheel they’ve been on for nearly a decade.
Stay or go? Stay.
Guerrero has missed just 10 games over the past five seasons. (Kevin Souza / USA Today)
The Blue Jays (known here as the Paper Tigers) have told teams they want to keep Guerrero and compete in 2025, which is an interesting proposition considering the impressive roster they’ve assembled has been a major disappointment, going 0-6 in the postseason over the last decade.
of New York Mets Not trading Pete Alonso. Arizona Diamondbacks Not trading Christian WalkerGuerrero may be the best slugger available on a thin market. Chicago White Soxof Louis Robert Jr.Guerrero is a year older at 26 and is far less durable, having missed just 10 games over the past five seasons.
Do the Blue Jays want to win in 2025? In the powerful American League East? Veterans in their 30s, such as outfielders George Springer Right-handed Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt One year older. Guerrero, shortstop Beau Bichette Outfielder Dalton Varsho It would be more expensive, and with neither Guerrero nor Bichette agreeing to a contract extension, they’re almost certain to leave as free agents at the end of the season.
The Blue Jays might “thread the eye of the needle,” to use an executive’s phrase, by trading Bassitt along with a potential free agent like a left-hander. Yusei Kikuchiright-handed relief pitcher Yimi Garcia catcher Danny JansenMoving Guerrero would likely mean trading away other players under club control beyond 2025 and essentially dismantling them entirely.
Such a ploy would be a concession to front office failure, but that’s OK. AthleticKeith Law evaluates Blue Jays farm system 20th in the major leaguesThis season should be this group’s last, not next, season. It’s time to regroup.
Stay or go? Go.
If the Athletics trade Miller, he’ll be the best bullpen pitcher on the market. (Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
Among the rival company executives: AucklandThe Dallas Mavericks seem reluctant to trade Miller, a 100-mph closer. The 25-year-old is a relief pitcher for a last-place team who missed nearly four months of last season with an elbow injury. His value has never been higher, and he could be a breakout star at any time.
That’s a fair statement, to say the least. But I believe the Athletics are making progress, too, though not as much as the Tigers. They started the season 30-56 before going 10-6 in July. And while the caveat of small sample size applies, on Monday the Athletics led the major leagues in runs allowed per game this month.
Not just the designated hitter Brent Rooker Left fielder Miguel Andujar He continues to have quality at-bats. Shea Langeliers Mariners Cal Lawrie Most home runs by a catcher and shortstop Max SchumannFirst baseman Tyler SoderstromCenter Fielder JJ Bradyright fielder Lawrence Butler There are some bright signs, too.
The players, head coach Mark Kotsay and front office are tired of losing and want to keep moving forward. Their most coveted trade candidates, Miller and Rooker, are under contract for five and three more seasons, respectively. Even the Athletics typically hold off on trading players with such short tenures. And if they were to move before the deadline, how would they find a replacement? If the Athletics offer top dollar, the free agents will come to Sacramento, but Sacramento won’t be their first choice. And the salary increases the team promises are too much to believe until they see them.
Miller was the A’s lone All-Star. Reported in MayAny team looking to acquire him would likely have to give up a young player of similar caliber or part with significant cash to acquire multiple young players who could be part of the Athletics’ future. The Athletics have asked the Padres for Jackson Merrill, according to a source briefed on the talks. The Padres declined.
Injury fears could reduce the return on Miller in a trade, but top-tier relief pitchers are always in demand at the deadline, and the risks of keeping Miller outweigh the pain that might come with moving him. The Athletics may not have a player comparable to Merrill, but they still need to build a rotation, and trading Miller for a top pitching prospect would help in that regard.
Stay or go? Go.
If the Cubs decide to move Steele, they will be highly coveted to acquire him at the deadline. (Tommy Gilligan/USA Today)
Cubs team president Jed Hoyer confirmed Monday that the team will be focused on 2025 and beyond at the deadline. Athletic As explained in a previous articleThe Cubs will be “opportunistic” — another executive buzzword — but their appetite to trade Steele may not be as strong as the Tigers’ to trade Skubal. At least, they should be.
Steele, a fifth-round pick in 2014, began to change that for years as he compiled a 3.07 ERA in 173 1/3 innings last season. He strained his left hamstring in Opening Day and missed the game until May 6, but has since bounced back.
With the White Sox’s left-hander, the most intriguing starting pitcher, on the market, could the Cubs extract a big return from Steal? Garret CrochetWill he need to pitch in relief this season to limit his innings? Yes, indeed. Steele has three years left on his club contract, one more than Skubal. But if the Cubs are focused on 2025, how do they replace Steele as an ace?
The Cubs, a high-salary team, should try to sign Steele to an extension before even thinking about moving him. Standard caveats would apply — Steele had Tommy John surgery in 2017, and God knows what other arm ailments lie ahead — but he is that rarest commodity in baseball: a team-making pitcher.
Stay or go? Stay.
Will the White Sox trade Robert at the deadline, or could they wait until the offseason? (Matt Murton/USA Today)
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox
Temptation!
Robert, 26, is a very intriguing trade candidate. He’s a five-tool center fielder under team control for three more years at seemingly reasonable salaries of $15 million, $20 million and $20 million. But the White Sox believe suitors could make a better offer for Robert during the offseason than at the deadline, according to a source briefed on the White Sox negotiations.
The reason? Robert is having a hard time staying on the field.
Roberts has only played in 98 or more games once in the past three seasons, in 2023, when he finished with 38 home runs, 20 stolen bases and an .857 OPS. Then he missed nearly two months with a right hip flexor injury earlier this season. To reach 100 games, he’ll need to play in 53 of the White Sox’s remaining 60 games. Few would bet on the over.
Another problem is that Robert hasn’t been as effective offensively as he was last season since returning on June 4, batting just .235 with a .325 on-base percentage. He hits for power, as his nine home runs show, and he’s a good runner, as his 11 stolen bases show. But if he can pick up his 2023 momentum and keep it up through the end of the season, he’ll be in even more demand this winter.
Sure, Robert could get hurt again, but even if that happens, the White Sox have plenty of other opportunities to move him, and even a player as frequently injured as Robert is worth taking a chance on.
Stay or go? Stay.
Eovaldi has 57 innings left before his $20 million player option for next season is exercised. (Raymond Carlin III/USA Today)
If the defending World Series champions aren’t close to selling, they should be.
Their chances of making the playoffs have dropped to around 10 percent, the majority of available evidence suggests this is not their year, and given the depth of their offensive struggles, they shouldn’t expect the returns expected. Tyler Mahr and Jacob deGrom To change that.
The 34-year-old Eovaldi has 57 innings left before his $20 million player option for next season vests, but that contract issue shouldn’t be too much of a problem. If he can stay healthy enough to guarantee the $20 million, he could decline the option and become a free agent. Or he could use the option as a bargaining chip and get more guaranteed money in an extension with the Rangers.
Typically, when a team trades a player, the chances of a reunion in free agency are greatly diminished. Players are at least more forgiving of other teams if they aren’t resentful of the move. But Eovaldi may be the exception. He has a strong relationship with Rangers general manager Chris Young, and he enjoys pitching relatively close to his home in Alvin, Texas, a suburb of Houston.
Consider this too: Of the available starting pitchers, Eovaldi has the most proven track record in October. His 3.05 ERA in 79 2/3 postseason innings led the Red Sox, YankeesThe Dodgers, where he previously played as a pitcher.
Stay or go? Go.
(Top photo by Tarik Skubal: Blaise Hemelgarn/ Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
