WASHINGTON – The U.S. Treasury Department today released its current estimate of privately held marketable net borrowings.[1] The period covered is for the July-September 2024 and October-December 2024 quarters.
- The Treasury expects to borrow $740 billion in privately held net marketable debt in the July-September 2024 quarter, assuming an end-September cash balance of $850 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $106 billion lower than what was announced in April 2024, primarily due to lower Federal Reserve Open Market Account (SOMA) redemptions and higher cash balances at the beginning of the quarter.[3]
- The Treasury expects to borrow $565 billion in privately held net marketable debt in the October-December 2024 quarter, assuming an end-December cash balance of $700 billion.[4]
During the April-June 2024 quarter, Treasury borrowed $234 billion in privately held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $778 billion. In April 2024, Treasury estimated borrowings at $243 billion and assumed a cash balance of $750 billion at the end of June. Privately held net marketable borrowings decreased $9 billion, primarily due to higher net cash flows and lower SOMA redemptions, partially offset by a $28 billion increase in the end-of-period cash balance.
Additional funding details related to the Treasury quarterly redemptions will be announced at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, July 31, 2024.
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[1] Unlisted net marketable borrowings do not include rollovers of Treasury securities held in SOMAs (auction “add-ons”), but do include funds needed for SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities through SOMAs do not directly change unlisted net marketable borrowings, but, other things being equal, an increase in the SOMA “add-on” amount will increase the amount of cash raised in a given unlisted auction size, assuming that the securities mature and the Federal Reserve does not redeem the maturing securities. Further, repurchases are not expected to have a significant impact on unlisted net marketable borrowings because new issuance will replace the repurchased securities.
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[3] On May 1, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that, starting June 1, it would reduce the limit on Treasury redemptions from the SOMA portfolio from $60 billion per month to $25 billion per month.
[4] The Treasury’s assumed end-of-December cash balance of $700 billion is also its assumed cash balance as of January 1, 2025, when the debt ceiling suspension expires. This assumption is based on projected cash flows under the Treasury’s cash management policy and is consistent with the Treasury’s authorities and obligations, including those under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. The actual cash balance as of January 1, 2025 may differ from this assumption depending on changes in cash flows at the end of 2024.
