Kiev, Ukraine — A month after the war, which began with widespread expectations for a swift Russian rout, Ukrainian troops embarked on a counterattack that changed the central dynamics of the battle. The problem is not how far the Russian army has advanced, the Ukrainians are now pushing them back.
Ukraine claimed to have blown up a Russian helicopter parked in the south and destroyed a naval vessel in the Sea of Azov on Thursday. The army struck a Russian supply fleet in the northeast.
Western and Ukrainian officials have also claimed the progress of fierce fighting around the capital Kyiv.
The benefits claimed in the territory are difficult to quantify or verify. In at least one serious battle in the suburbs of Kyiv, where Russian troops were closest to the capital, it was not clear that the brutal street fights continued to intensify on Thursday and Ukraine regained some position.
But even this muddy picture of Ukraine’s progress serves a message to the citizens of the country and the world. It means not only crouching to defend, but also fighting enemies with excellent numbers and weapons. And it emphasizes the flawed plans and implementations that have plagued the Russian army from the beginning, such as supply shortages and demoralized soldiers. These failures allowed Ukraine to continue its attacks unexpectedly.
In particular, by preventing Russian troops from occupying Irpin, a suburban town about 12 miles from the center of Kyiv, Ukraine often sends small units out of the capital to engage Russians in ambush. Showed success. At least for now.
Western governments have released a cautious and optimistic assessment of the counterattack. In an intelligence report released Wednesday, the Ukrainian Department of Defense said the Ukrainian move was “increasing pressure” on Russians east of Kyiv, and Ukrainian soldiers were “probably just north of Macalis and the capital. I regained another small town. “
Noting the decisive state of the battle, the report states that a Ukrainian counterattack could successfully surround and cut the supply line of Russian invaders in the region. I raised what is called. For Ukraine. At the very least, “the success of the Ukrainian counterattack will disrupt the ability of Russian troops to reorganize and resume their attacks on Kyiv.”
In the counterattack around Kyiv, Ukrainian troops ordered low-level commanders to devise strategies to counterattack in a way that suits their local area. In many cases, this involved sending small units of infantry to reconnaissance missions to find and engage instigated Russian troops in villages near Kyiv, soldiers on such missions said over the weekend. rice field.
According to analysts, fighting in the northwestern part of the capital is likely to take longer on the Ukrainian side. The Russian column is short of fuel and ammunition, suggesting intercepted radio transmissions. The soldiers slept in the car for a month in the freezing weather.
And military analysts saw this axis of Russia’s advance, which was closest to the center of Kyiv, but was most troubled by logistical failures and retreats in combat.
Still, the war here is uncertain, without knowing which troops are actually advancing in the conflicting towns and villages, said CNA’s director of Russian research at the Institute in Arlington, Virginia. Michael Coffman said.
In a broader sense, there is also a time on the Ukrainian side to stall at least the first Russian invaders across the country. But this may change. Little is known about the initial rise in patriotism, which can diminish as the harsh reality of war begins or civilians begin to grasp the military losses of Ukraine.
“Our understanding of where we are in this war right now is very incomplete and we must be honest about this,” Koffman said. “If you don’t know who controls what, you don’t know who is gaining momentum.”
By Thursday, the city was engulfed in eerie white smoke as fierce fighting caused so many fires in the towns around Kyiv. But the actual signs of progress on earth were elusive. Ukrainian troops could not show control of villages and towns previously owned by Russian troops.
“They are fighting day and night and everything is on fire,” said saleswoman Orha, 33, who escaped from Irpin on Wednesday night. She was interviewed at an aid station for refugees. There, I heard a constant dissonance of explosions from nearby battles.
Earlier Wednesday, Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said at a news conference that Ukrainian troops actually pushed back Russian troops and “almost all of Irpin’s are in Ukrainian hands.” Other Ukrainian and Western officials have also provided more optimistic explanations than can be seen by witnesses.
Irpin’s deputy police chief, Oleksandr Bogai, said Russian soldiers were still in town, occupying some districts and fighting Ukrainian troops. It’s essentially the same situation that lasted almost a month of the war. “There is a huge explosion and a lot of smoke,” he said on the phone. “Citizens are trapped in the basement. I don’t know exactly what’s going on.”
Mayor Vadim Tokar said in a telephone interview that fighting continued in Makarib, another battlefield town west of Kyiv that Ukrainian officials claimed to have retaken this week.
“I don’t know where this nonsense came from,” he said of reports that his town had been liberated. “That’s not true. Now there is artillery and Russian tanks are shooting at the town.”
Indeed, some Western and Ukrainian official accounts also offer more measured ratings. Oleksandr Pavliuk, head of the Kyiv junta, said Thursday that the counterattack could “improve” in Irpin and McCarib, but did not claim control.
Volodymyr Zelensky’s senior adviser, Mihailo Podryak, announced a counterattack on March 16 after it was revealed that Russia’s armor pillars suffered logistical and communication problems and suffered losses in ambush. did.
Russian troops continued to move forward in eastern Ukraine, claiming that they had occupied the provincial town of Izyum in the Kharkiv region, which had been under attack for several weeks, on Thursday. Ukraine denied it was captured. Neither account could be verified individually.
In the battle around Kyiv, civilians evacuated from the battlefield painted a picture of chaotic and deadly violence rather than a liberated town.
Vladimir, a 66-year-old retired furniture factory worker who refused to reveal his family name, left Irpin’s Thursday morning after his home burned down overnight.
“No one has put out the fire,” he said. “My neighbor’s house burned, the roof was studded with sparks, and the house began to burn.”
He could only see because there was not enough water to fight the fire. “We should never surrender,” he said. “We will never live under the Russians again.”
There were few signs that even rudimentary private services were established in the town that the Ukrainian government was trying to recapture.
The woman, who offered only her first name, Elena, shed tears on the escape route from Irpin, saying she helped her neighbors bury her adult son in the backyard because authorities hadn’t collected the dead. Arrived at the aid station.
“I hope his grave isn’t destroyed,” she said. “The men dug a tomb in the garden between the roses, laid stones around it, and hung a cross on it.”
Still, as one of the signs that the counterattack was pushed into an area previously dominated by Russian troops, Ukrainian troops recovering the dead from the battlefield found the bodies of Russian soldiers in towns around Kyiv. Sergei Lysenko of the unit said. Commander.
He didn’t say anything about the town he was working in. For now, he said in a telephone interview that they are leaving the Russians on the spot because they don’t want to take additional risks to get them back.
“It is clear that Russia will not be able to achieve its original political goals in this war,” said Koffman of the CNA Institute. He said Russia would have to change its goals or change its military strategy “if it wants to maintain this war on a large scale over the next few weeks.”
Maria Varenikova contributed a report from Kyiv, Ukraine.