The war waged by Vladimir Putin The idea that he would win in a matter of days still rages on almost a year later, with both sides desperate for more equipment, soldiers, and international support. But it looks like Russia could get a knockout blow soon. Ukrainian friend of the United States and Europe.
Washington last week announced A new $3.8 billion arms package to Ukraine that includes everything from much-needed air defense systems to artillery ammunition. But most of the Ukrainian excitement was reserved for the inclusion of the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. Ukraine has long sought help rehabilitate land seized by RussiaUltimately Bradley’s decision to signal is that even more sophisticated weapon systems, including tanks, may be just on the horizon.
The line about which systems are “too escalating” to be sent to Ukraine is always moving in Ukraine’s favor, and the weapons considered too escalating at the start of the war are now under consideration. While the United States and other nations have sent artillery to Ukraine during the conflict, non-Soviet tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs for short) were, until recently, an unofficial red line.
The US isn’t the only country changing its mind about what’s appropriate to send.Germany in the last few weeks promised Send 40 Murder Infantry Fighting Vehicles. His IFVs in Germany and America are in varying states of modernization, but still a big difference, as both Russia and Ukraine are now using a hodgepodge of his IFVs, including much older equivalents will produce
The biggest problem is the provision of modern American and European tanks. Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic handed over hundreds of Soviet-era tanks to Ukraine during the war. Ukrainians have made good use of donated tanks, but have consistently sought more modern tanks manufactured by the United States, Germany and others.
Europe has been reluctant to send tanks, but with both the German Leopard 2 and British Challenger 2 being considered, the tide may be turning.France has already promised AMX-10RC, It was on par with tank destroyers, but fell short of promising its own main battle tank, the Leclerc.
The Leopard 2 is considered the most likely candidate for Western tanks.if still germany itself Other European countries from Spain to Finland can deploy them, and countries that spare leopards can send spare parts.
The German government has the power to restrict owners of German tanks from transferring to Ukraine, but the country is now under more pressure to allow other countries to transfer the Leopard. I’m here.
January 10th, Politico report that France was pressuring Berlin to send tanks, and that the next day the Polish president announced It didn’t say if Germany would allow some of their Leopard 2s to be sent to Ukraine. If Berlin finally agrees to send tanks or allow other countries to re-export tanks, they are likely to announce it at a Franco-German summit later this month.
England has also been reported planned You can send tanks, but there is a limit to how many you can reasonably send for the size of your tank fleet Diminished Over the last few years, the British had little leeway.
Beyond the new donations, major equipment promised for 2022 is expected to arrive in 2023. The most notable of these is the air defense system. America, December promised Patriot missile batteries and France have secured exports of SAMP/T. Both could be deployed in the coming months if crews are trained. L3 vampire small Systems designed to shoot down drones at a fraction of the cost of more sophisticated systems are also expected to appear in the coming months.
Ukraine wants more weapons, while Russia wants more personnel.Ukraine claims Russia is trying to mobilize Send half a million reservists to support the new offensive against Ukraine next year. If Ukraine is right, the new army he will add to 300,000. reservists Putin made a call last fall. Mobilizing more reservists would cause chaos, but the influx of troops would make it more difficult for Ukraine to regain more territory.
Russia does not have international donors like Ukraine, but Russia’s partnership with Iran could extend to 2023.Iran has already attached Russia has used drones to attack Ukrainian infrastructure, but many of the drones and missiles rumored to emerge have yet to be seen on the battlefield. quarrel Iran is waiting until October, when a UN resolution related to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which would impose sanctions if Iran supplies long-range missiles, expires.
Iran has much more to offer Russia than missiles and drones.The country has been under international sanctions for some time and is adept at circumventing international restrictions. Tehran can not only help Russia smuggles oil to finance wars, but could help Russia acquire Western-made products component For its missiles and drones.US gained momentum sanctions Although he expressed concern with Iran over arms transfers this month, it would be difficult to completely stop supplies of parts.
Arms transfers are so likely that it is difficult to predict what Ukraine will look like in 2023. Russia’s willingness to raise hundreds of thousands of recruits and leverage its ties with countries like Iran will improve its ability to keep fighting. Meanwhile, Ukrainian commanders will spearhead an even stronger fighting force as US and European support grows in size and scope.