there is a new SARS-CoV-2 form, causative virus COVIDIt’s called XBB.1.5, but it’s nasty. XBB.1.5, also known as “Kraken,” is more contagious than previous subvariants of his Omicron variant of the virus, and is also more likely to evade vaccines and antibodies from past infections.
Covid cases related to the Kraken are surging around the world. But that’s not what epidemiologists are most concerned about as the COVID-19 pandemic enters its fourth year. No, China It’s what scares the experts. Unlike the rest of the world, it is now the first country to have a Covid outbreak.
This means 1.4 billion people are experiencing what we experienced in early 2020 with a slight twist. And what happens next in China could reverberate around the world in horrific ways.
So far, China has caught an older form of Covid based on surveillance of Chinese travelers arriving in Italy. , “There are no new variants, just pre-existing circulating strains that are rapidly spreading among populations with low natural immunity.”
But that could change.
Yes, the kraken is bad. But it evolved from earlier forms of the virus at a time when most of the world (with the exception of China, of course) had fairly strong immunity. Of course, widespread vaccination was important in the early days, but two years after the first injection became available, he said, what really protects most people is from past infections. is a natural antibody of That’s because natural antibodies are more effective and last longer than those from vaccines and boosters.
With all the discussions about shutdowns, masks, vaccines and cures, most of the world ended up taking a reasonably sensible approach to Covid. Many countries have curbed businesses, schools, crowds and travel until 2020, helping to slow the spread of the virus until a vaccine becomes available later that year.
Since then, more and more people have been fully or partially vaccinated, and today most of the 8 billion people in the world have received at least one Covid jab, and billions have received the jab. I’m here. When Boost — The country has gradually reopened.
People went back to the normal version. Yes, it meant the spread of the virus, and in the end he brought the Omicron variant and its many variants. These still prevail today. But vaccines have bluntd the worst effects of many of these infections. Case rates have risen (and fallen, risen, and fallen). Overall, however, hospitalizations and deaths have been on a downward trend, and this trend continues today.
And all these infections prompted a beneficial cycle beginning with mass vaccination. We got Covid and, for the most part, survived it — because millions of people had been vaccinated. gave me Next When we caught Covid a year or six months after vaccines started to wear out.When that Infection sowed the seeds of immunity Next 6 months or 9 months or 12 months.
etc. Epidemiologists expect this cycle to continue unless the SARS-CoV-2 virus undergoes a surprising and colossal evolution that disables all existing antibodies.
But the longer the pandemic drags on, the less likely this nightmare outcome will be. With each wave of infection waning, Covid begins to look more and more like the flu. This disease should be taken seriously, but it is not one that is likely to end the world. “Within a few years, COVID-19 In addition to seasonal flu, it will be a background risk,” says Lawrence Gostin, a global health expert at Georgetown University.
This is not to say that the novel coronavirus is not as dangerous as the flu. Even non-fatal SARS-CoV-2 infections can have serious consequences. For example, long-term Covid — a long-term combination of symptoms that can include fatigue, confusion, loss of sensation, and even heart problems. Risks are declining in many parts of the world.
But in China, things could get worse before they get better. This is because China implemented her lockdown in early 2020 and maintained it for nearly three years as part of the country’s “Zero Covid” policy. Only on December 8, after widespread mass protests in many major cities, did the ruling Chinese Communist Party Finally Lift major restrictions in most places.
“The situation completely changed on December 8,” says Ben Cowling, professor of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong. Restrictions have contained SARS-CoV-2, prevented transmission, and until a few weeks ago had the lowest rate of Covid cases of any country. I meant.
Yes, about 90% of the Chinese population is at least partially vaccinated.But the hundreds of millions of Chinese elderly who are most vulnerable to Covid are the least likely to be vaccinated. that is Vaccinated I was vaccinated more than a year ago. These early vaccination protections are now largely gone.
So when restrictions were lifted and more than a billion Chinese finally started to travel and travel, they did so without the protections people around the world had so hard earned from past infections. rice field.
It should come as no surprise that China is really sick right now. “Infections before December 2022 were very low, and recent vaccination doses are very low, making almost the entire population vulnerable. This will provide temporary protection against infection.” explains Cowling.
However how It’s hard to say definitively that it’s sick because the country’s dictatorship has stopped reporting reliable data. Yes, but it also depends on China’s thriving social media scene, which brought the pandemic to the world’s attention in the first place,” says Tambiya.
More and more countries are testing travelers arriving from China. Malaysian health officials are testing wastewater from passenger planes arriving from Chinese airports. increase. Peter Hotez, a vaccine development expert at Baylor University, said, “Ideally, this would include the virus for genome sequencing to see if any new, sinister variants of concern have emerged. Includes samples.
It could be rough 2023 as China catches up with the beneficial cycle of infections and reinfections to protect much of the world and make the pandemic “normal” for many of us. Cowling said China will not achieve its own new normal unless many Chinese (potentially the majority of the population) contract the virus and survive it. Most of them do it with minimal immunity.
Consider that the United States, a country with a billion fewer people than China, has over a million Covid deaths to build today’s vital natural immunity. “It’s a heartbreaking, tragic statistic,” says Eric Voortz, a virologist and public health expert at the University of Alaska, Anchorage. “China is now looking down on that barrel.”
The risk for the rest of the world is that the millions of severe Covid infections in China could act as a kind of incubator for more dangerous forms of the novel coronavirus.
Every infection is an opportunity for pathogens to mutate. Niema Mosiri, a geneticist at the University of California, San Diego, says slots are like her machine. An individual infection tends to produce two mutations every two weeks, she explains Moshiri. In other words, the virus is trying to win the genetic jackpot that pulls the lever her twice a month, giving her a new advantage. higher transmissibility. Increases ability to evade antibodies.
“What would happen if 50 million people pulled the levers of slot machines at the same time?” Mosiri asks. “At least he expects one to hit the jackpot pretty quickly. Now replace the slot machines with ‘clinically meaningful SARS-CoV-2 mutations.’ That’s our situation. ”
It’s safe to say that most of the world has Covid under control to a greater or lesser extent, even as a new Kraken variant rears its nasty little head. And some new variants that have evolved from the Chinese outbreak could ruin 2023 for everyone else.